23 November 2010
Using Ken Ring's weather forecast may kill you!
For many years, I have simply poured cold water on Ken Ring's absurd claims that he can predict weather by phases of the moon, but thanks to even more outrageous claims by him surrounding the Christchurch earthquake, I have actually been taking some notes of Ken's actual success rate in forecasting weather.
Ken has a prediction for weather for one week from today on his website, and I have been recording that and the results each Tuesday for the past five weeks, for Auckland, Christchurch, Sydney and Melbourne.
Ken's "success" rate is a lousy 30%. Science - meteorology - managed to get a quite respectable 81.25% correct with its 7-day out forecasts.
It is quite plain to me that if someone going fishing, hunting, tramping or camping relies on Ken's weather forecast instead of the real thing, he is putting his life at risk. Ken's method of predicting weather by phases of the moon is bullshit and will not predict the bad weather which turns up suddenly.
If you value your life, do not rely on Ken Ring's forecasts. Metservice provides free forecasts for the whole of New Zealand and all of our coastal and recreational waters. If you are planning any kind of weather-dependent activity, get a real weather forecast first.
Copyright © Alan Charman