War in 2014
29 July 2014
100 years ago today, Germany wanted to show the world what a power it was, so it flexed its muscles and invaded Serbia and started World War I. That didn't work out too well, not just creating ten million corpses, but also setting the stage for the bloodiest war of all, World War II.
A very well-known cognitive scientist and author, Steven Pinker, released a book in 2011 entitled: The Better Angles of our Nature. In it, Pinker proposes that humans have become less violent because a smaller percentage of people are dying in wars now, compared to any time in past history.
That sounds reasonable on the face of it, but the theory completely ignores a few salient facts.
250 years ago, owning a good bow & arrow gave you a chance of a surprise attack against soldiers carrying muskets. The massive advance in weapons in that period now means that it is suicidally stupid to attack someone with superior firepower. I believe a large part of the decline in war deaths is that it's a lot easier to surrender now than in the past, and when confronted by a bloke with an RPG, the only choice is to put one's hands up and hope for the best.
I believe Pinker has also underestimated the value of economic benefits. During 1980 - 2000, the booming world economy meant that countries had fewer reasons to engage in war with each other. The little intra-border clashes in Africa faded away with the downswing in Apartheid, while the growing influence of China in Asia matched USA's "world police" attitude elsewhere, leaving governments the possibility that an attack on a weak neighbour may provoke an attack by US or NATO forces. The Balkan atrocities of the 1980s and 1990s are a testament to this actually being done, albeit somewhat on the late side for many Bosnians.
The last, and most important problem for Pinker's theory are the wars this century.
Like most Americans, Pinker has wildly underestimated deaths caused by war. He relies on "official" war death totals, when that presents nothing like a true picture. The Iraqi children dying today through being born exposed to depleted uranium from armour-piercing shell fragments are every bit as much victims of the Iraq invasion as the thousands of Iraqi soldiers killed in their trenches by US Army vehicles, but they are not counted. The millions of corpses littering the plains of Sudan, Chad and Rwanda who died from starvation and/or preventable disease due to having been displaced by war are also victims that ought to be included in the totals, but are not.
Anyway, the premise that the 21st century is or will be a peaceful one is bullshit.
For starters, we have the Iraq and Afghanstan invasions, and they're only now showing the fruits of the initial invasions, as ISIS takes large parts of Iraq while the Taliban regain control in the regions of Afghanistan.
At the same time, near-civil war conditions prevail throughout the middle of the continent, with Nigeria, CAR and Somalia are bringing uncounted thousands of dead daily.
By comparison, the war porn being shown on our screens via Palestine and Ukraine are small fry. Note, I am not demeaning the dead in those conflicts - they are every bit as horrific to me - but the numbers we are not hearing about are far, far greater. (I am not the only person to have noticed)
At the same time as these numerous small conflicts are going on, we have the world's two pretenders to America's throne - Putin and China - flexing their muscles, perceiving America as a battered nation whose citizens are largely sick of seeing body bags come home from places they've never heard of. Putin by annexing Crimea and funding rebels in Ukraine, China by staking claims to parts of the China Sea already owned by other countries.
I estimate that the war dead for 2014 already surpasses the total for any year since the 2003, when the invasion of Iraq set the benchmark for the "official" war deaths in the world in the 21st century.
Count them up for yourself: Syria, Somalia, Iraq, Nigeria, Gaza, Sudan, Central African Republic, along with the Afghan, Iraq, Kurd troika and a score of minor conflicts going on right now.
Copyright © Alan Charman