The 2008 General Election Handicap
This is a little game I started in December 2006.
(Updated March 2010)
No problem for Johnny, still with a massive lead in the polls - he'll win in 2011 just as he did in 2008.
December 2006 I’m going to call this as a horse race from today until Election night 2008. The swap to John Key leading the Nats has at last made the political landscape of New Zealand interesting with John being the leader of a group of Young Turks, the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the true Labour triumvirate of Lange, Douglas and Prebble.
Have a look at the politics in New Zealand over the past half century. It
has been largely, steady as she goes, apart from occasions when a group of
young, determined and smart men have grasped control of the country in a
bloodless coup from one side or t’other of the spectrum.
Muldoon, Talboys, Gordon and others were the first lot and we needn’t dwell
too much on the stupendous fuck-up Piggy made of running this place.
The common factor between the raving communist – the “right wing” Muldoon
and the rabid capitalist – the socialist Labour government of Lange et al,
is that both regimes utterly dominated their side of politics for twenty or
more years. Bolger was the last true Muldoonite, while Clark is the last of
the Lange team.
Labour will no doubt undergo a similar intake in 2011 when they start to
replace a lot of the dead wood which is going to get its collective arse
kicked out of parliament in 2008.
Anyway, let’s have a study of the form prior to the start:
Labour.
Form: 222111 Draw: 8 Eight year old mare, by Socialist out of Nanny State.
Well-performed, having won its last three, but does look in need of a spell.
Jockey Clark showing signs of tiredness and irritability. Has never managed
four in a row. Being the sitting champion and having to start from the
outside won’t aid this aging mare’s chance. Looks little chance against
favourite but should be too good for the rest, obvious quinella.
National.
Form: 111222 Draw: 1 Four year old entire, by Venture Capital out of Free
Markets.
Freshened after a lengthy spell, has new jockey up in Key – yet to lose his
apprentice claim, but has been given top marks by astute judges. The number
of wins Key had over Michael Cullen (by Christian Cullen – out of Moaning
Minnie) in the Parliamentary Handicap is notable. Looks the obvious choice
and has been favoured with the inside draw. Wins.
NZ First Form: 33633 Draw: 6
Nine year old entire, by Xenophobia out of Old Age Pensioner
Perennial placegetter in the big ones, usually with little form inbetween,
apart from the odd bush-track win. Wily jockey Peters retains the mount. How
his charge will go with a new jockey is impossible to know, but shouldn’t
pose a question until at least 2011. Serious challenger for the trifecta
again, although the barrier draw won’t assist. May struggle against some of
the younger challengers.
Green Party Form: 544 Draw: 2
Six year old mare, by Karl Marx out of Tree Hugger
Relative newcomer to the ranks, although did gain some experience prior to
1999 when part of the “Alliance”. Has struggled since death of leading bloke
[?] Donald, but aging jockey Fitzsimmons retains the mount for 2008. Often
struggles under handicap conditions with the dual-jockey, but is serious
challenger for the minor placing next time out thanks to a favourable draw
and strong support from trendy dickbrains who can’t tell an open-cast mine
from a closed mind.
Untied
Form: 6765 Draw: 3 Seven year old gelding by Christian Shithead out of
Complete Pansy
This poorly-bred gelding has confounded the critics time after time, putting
up strong performances on the back of nothing but a display of riding skills
from its jockey, Dunny. While he retains the mount, they are guaranteed to
win at least a seat, so will certainly still be in the field in 2011. Luck
from the draw is again favourable for this over-performing, untalented hack.
ACT
Form: 5446 Draw: 4 Five year old entire by Genghis Khan out of Baroness
Thatcher
Had been seen as a potential top-liner a couple of starts back under the
stern, unforgiving riding style of jockey Prebble. With Hide’s hide in the
hide, last start, it was given no chance and started at 1000:1, surprising
all pundits with a come-from-behind win in Epsom. Now that Hide has a bit
better feel for the central role, it may well surprise with a strong run.
The bolter.
Anderton (fmly: Alliance, fmly: Progressive)
Form: 34377 Draw: 5 Ten year old entire by Karl Marx out of Nanny State
This aging entire, a half-brother to two different horses in the same race,
has been a stout performer over the years. Jockey Anderton, tipped as a
future Prime Minister of NZ in Time magazine in 1872, never quite made it to
the top of the podium, but has had the satisfaction of some very strong
minor placings. No chance in this race, although will probably hold on for
qualifying for the next event. No replacement jockey engaged and would be a
scratching without Anderton aboard. Is 10,000:1 to win.
The Race:
Pre-start was uneventful, with no surprise that National’s jockey, Key, took
the irons like an old pro.
They’re off!
Out of the starting gates and Labour as expected has crossed to lead, giving
National the perfect trail. ACT has punched through to sit third and Green
have taken up a good spot three back on the fence, sitting in nicely behind
National. All seem to be travelling well at this early stage, with possibly
Labour looking to over-race a little.
January 2007 Still a long way to go in this race, but Key, in a
lightning move which will cost him nothing, zipped around to take the lead,
then settling straight into the trail as the Maori Party takes the lead
effortlessly, despite its enormous weight, with Tariana Turia in the saddle.
Labour now back on the fence, 3 deep, pulling hard for its head and not
travelling at all well.
This bloke Key's tactics look to be far superior to Aunty Helen right now..
July 2007 6 months on and National is cruising, hard held at the
halfway stage.
Just over a year to go and Labour is stumbling along under the massive
handicap of the ghosts of Pope Benson XVIII and Potato Field.
Key looking every inch a winner, even with a round to go. Like Kotare Chief
in the Auckland Cup, Key and National have opened up an enormous lead,
cantering, while the rest of the field is being scrubbed along.
November 2007 12 months out from the election and John Key will no
doubt be strongly heartened by recent poll results.
Cruising in front like Sunline at Moonee Valley. Helen meanwhile, is
struggling under a big weight three wide without cover.
God I wish the TAB had odds on it!
May 2008 As already noted, Sunline's win at the Valley and Kotare Chief in the Auckland Cup would be the best description of John Key and National as we're halfway around the home bend.
June 2008 - I just have to do it. Paying $1-35 for a win at Centrebet, National must be the biggest certainty ever. I've thought from the start that this campaign would be a lot like the massive beating Kotare Chief once handed a field in New Zealand's greatest race - this will no doubt show you why:
The National Party is Kotare Chief and John Key is Jock Caddigan.
While Kotare Chief had time to stop for a cup of tea on the way and still win, Key could go to Fiji until polling day and still win 51% of the vote.
Poll after poll is coming in showing no erosion of support for National, and probably rightly so - while Key has made a few cock-ups, he's shown the ability to learn; a rare trait in a politician.
August 2008.
Is this the first sign of trouble for National?
Some clear problems for National and their secret agendas - or, as I like to class it, stupidity in making comments which make them look stupid. Over the past month National have seen their support erode by a startling amount, while Labour has sneaked a few back in return. Given that Green and Maori are the only other two parties with a shot at getting back in, National still has a nice cushion, but one must wonder whether John Key, Bill, "I ain't no Boxer" English, Maurice Williamson, et al, might not be experiencing just a tiny tightening of the sphincter.
September 2008
Opinion poll from Roy Morgan comes out at a lead of only 6.4% for National and 8% for the Greenmunists, giving the ruling coalition a slight lead.
Has National failed to do a Kotare Chief and timed its run early?
Jockey Clark on Labour hasn't even drawn the whip yet and Key and national seem to be under pressure. They've entered the home stretch - does National have anything left to withstand the burst Labour is sure to have in reserve? The leadership debates will be interesting, given Key's inability to make a positive statement aside from a childish desire to be PM at all costs, how will he go when the whips start to crack as Helen brings 30 years of political debate to the lectern?
Maybe not as exciting as McCain + the useless slag vs Obama/Biden, but interesting nonetheless.
November 2008
No worries for jockey Key as his mount cruises towards the line, still a dozen lengths clear.
Stand in your stirrups, Johnny and take a bow as we welcome a new PM!
Copyright © Alan Charman