21st July 2008
Well, I've said it and said it again, and finally some proof!
My Trademe newsletter yesterday advised that applications are up by 50% per job over the same time 12 months ago. That is the exact opposite of the real estate market, which is down 50% on a year ago. The Herald is onto it as well!
The number of jobseekers will continue to increase, creating a boom time for recruiters. That's why we're expanding. Take the opportunity to jump aboard recruiting as it grows and changes with an influx of new people seeking jobs. Adding to the challenges will be an enormous increase in migrants from the UK and Europe as the great economies stall and summer days start to shorten. Infrastructure spending in New Zealand is going to continue and the demand for engineers, technicians and tradespeople will carry on for the foreseeable future.
We know where those jobs are.
Mostly with our customers!
13th July 2008
And the dire news continues....
Homes dropping in value, many impossible to sell and being placed out for rent, helping the rental market drop in concert with the falling real estate market.
This is just the best news for migrants!
You can arrive in NZ, leaving your funds in deposit in the UK or Europe and take advantage of lower rents while you wait for the market to drop to appropriate levels (around a 20% correction from the insanity of 2007) and then jump in and buy.
Meanwhile, there is no lack of jobs, so go ahead and apply for some now. (Our vacancies page is the best place to start!)
Hard evidence has now started to show that NZ is indeed in recession, and also in the grip of an attack of the dreaded inflation. We've already seen signs of the contracting economy with huge increase in job-seekers and applications from dozens of people who have been laid off very recently.
16th June 2008
Some early signs of contraction in the New Zealand economy are being seen anecdotally, and I fully expect to see the apparent trends confirmed by figures at the end of this month.
Aside from the obvious problems in the housing market, there has been a noticeable decline in discretionary spending.
Charities are already struggling with increased fuel costs and are starting to see tightening wallets impacting on direct income by way of donations.
Public transport usage is up and while that increase is only slight at this stage, the trend is expected to accelerate as the cost of fuel stays high.
The ugly spectre of inflation rears its ugly head, with food joining petrol in a double-whammy on consumers' pockets. The importance of this isn't going to hit home to most employees until it's time to seek salary increases. I'm very confident that in a shrinking economy, those increases will be minimal, if indeed they happen at all.
There is another side to the dark clouds - New Zealand is somewhat insulated overall from the worst effects of recession by the still-dominant agriculture industry. I recall some quarter of a century ago, a union official telling me that farming was not going to even be relevant to New Zealand in 25 years time.
Yeah, right, I said at the time. I think I got that one right, with the entire economy of this country still being 100% dependant upon dairy farming in particular. Without record prices for dairy products, we would now be the Nicaragua of the South Pacific. Massive spending at Fieldays has been seen, with record numbers posted across the board. As the NZ economy declines and interest rates drop, fuel and imports will become dearer, but farm incomes will increase even more. Still the best industry to get into. Any industry supplying the dairy and general farming industries is probably a good bet for future growth as many others contract.
Interesting times
4 June 2008
The economic news continues to be mixed, with the Reserve Bank still not seeing the results of the downturn. This pretty much confirms the hard landing expected, but the RB really does intend to keep the lid on salaries by not lowering rates yet. This is going to mean harder times for employers and less likelihood of getting decent pay rises.
The way to maximise your potential income is by applying for a new job, while the demand still exists. It is apparent that engineers of all specialities are in high demand right now, so striking while the iron's hot is a smart plan! I'm probably hammering this point a little, but that's how much I reckon it's right! Are you prepared to bet against me?
29 May 2008
Airline shares.
Do not buy.
For the past several days in a row, airlines have reduced profit expectations, reduced services and generally signalled that this is a really bad time to be working for an airline. QANTAS alone expects a fuel bill increase of $A2 billion! And that's just the increase over last year's bill.
Huge fuel price rises and falling demand as the "hard landing" is felt by those who work for a living will mean hugely reduced turnover for all airlines for some time to come.
That immediately impacts on the entire travel industry and tourism in general. Hotels can be confidently expected to join the downturn.
If you're in one of those industries, then the time to act is right now - before the layoffs start. Instead of being one of hundreds seeking a new job, take advantage of the still-buoyant employment market while it's there.
27 May 2008
It's becoming very noticeable that the downturn is starting to bite and bite hard. I have had several firms in the past few days tell me that work is down, in some cases by large amounts. I even had a real estate salesman approach me for a process worker's job! He hadn't sold a house since January!
Some areas are out-performing the market at the moment, and several of those companies are our customers - call us to find out where those opportunities are.
26 May 2008
Isn't it great to be shown right?
The first blog, only last Thursday, said:
"The biggest growth area during the next 12 months, employment - wise, will be in debt collection."
And yesterday's Sunday headlines were:
"Bad debts up 500 per cent as easy credit bites"
I'd just like to reiterate that now is the time to get into this vibrant industry - talk to us soon!
22 May 2008
Redundancies continue to make the news, with another couple of hundred about to lose their jobs. There is also a silent round of enormous redundancies happening, but you'll never hear about it - from within the real estate and mortgage industries. In those games, people are employed on a commission-only basis, so the term redundancy is never used because the players just drift quietly away when the income dries up.
Car salespeople are also joining the queue as car yards wind their businesses up in the face of a shrinking economy and enormous increases in petrol prices. I have already had real estate agents telling me that they haven't sold a house in four or five months as they desperately try to find other work.
The wider economy is in no real trouble as NZ rakes in the profits from ever-increasing prices for our biggest export - foods made from milk. Along with that, the government and its SOEs are ready to spend billions of dollars building new roads, electrical infrastructure, prisons and other public works.
Demand for technical and engineering people is strong and ongoing and it would take a major shift in the world before those jobs are filled, such is the local requirement. That probably doesn't mean much if you're a salesperson trying to find a job, so where should you turn?
Copyright © Alan Charman