17 June 2015
This Cold War is likely to be a little more entertaining that the original Cold War. This time, there are three players instead of the former two, and they're on three different sides: USA/NATO, Russia & China.
The whole thing has been simmering for a while and Putin is no doubt encouraged by the West's lack of response to his annexing Crimea. Rusia has also been letting NATO know what it thinks of it by flying aircraft repeatedly right on the line of NATO-members' air spaces. This was a frequent tactic used by both sides in Cold War I.
USA has responded to the threat of Russia by ramping up a defensive line in Europe, exactly as it did in Cold War I.
Putin responds by ordering more nuke ICBMs. Cuban missile crisis, anyone?
This time around, however, there is a new player: China.
China has made its position on the South China Sea quite plain. They own it, and anyone wishing to argue had better bring something less sinkable than the islands they are currently building. USA might have a lot of aircraft carriers, but I'm going to bet on the islands if it ever came to a fight.
Meanwhile, USA is mired deep in North Africa & the Middle East, with troops stretched very thinly. America appetite for war has always been based on the 10:1 ratio, where they expect to only have 1/10 the losses incurred by the other side. Check history if you doubt me and you will find that in every conflict in the past century, USA's losses have been 10% or less of the other side's losses.
This time around, America finds itself matched tactically. While China has few attack ships and submarines, Russia has plenty, and they both have enormously strong defences - probably stronger than USA's thanks to having a more complete control of their citizens than America.
With another Bush potentially heading to the
White House the next few years are likely to be fairly interesting.
Good old Jeb has already threatened Putin, and that's before he even
threw his hat in the ring for Republican nomination.
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